Across a number of European countries, the next stage of domestic cup competitions is scheduled for the early weeks of 2017. In England, the breakneck pace of the Premier League over the holiday period is briefly interrupted to push the FA Cup into the spotlight. National cups also continue in Spain, France and Italy in early January, with the heavy involvement of top division clubs. The German cup reaches its Round of 16 in February.
While cup ties are undoubtedly important for lower league sides, as the chance of creating an historic upset is enticing for any club, in all countries it is common to see the top clubs fielding reserve players and resting their star names. With the aim of providing some insight on recent trends, in this article the KPMG Football Benchmark team analyses the recent history of national cup competitions in the ‘big five’ football countries of England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France.
No one format
All analysed cup competitions are structured around a knock-out format. While in France and Germany each round is played over a single leg with one match deciding each tie, if necessary after extra-time and a penalty shoot-out, all the other competitions analysed present interesting variations.
In England the FA Cup also utilises a one-leg system throughout the competition, but prior to the semi-finals, drawn ties are automatically replayed and only then extra time and penalties are introduced. In Italy only the Coppa Italia semi-finals are played over two legs, leveraging the additional media value of these attractive matches.
Spain’s Copa del Rey differs the most from the others as all ties between the round of 32 and semi-finals involve two legs. As a result, participants can increase their matchday revenues from home fixtures, especially if they play against one of the more attractive teams. A similar arrangement also helps smaller teams in Germany, where in the first two rounds of the DFB Pokal the top-seeded teams from the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga are guaranteed to play away from home against lower division sides.
How difficult is it to win the cup and how common are upsets?
Due to the two-legged structure, LaLiga clubs in Spain have to play nine matches to win the Copa del Rey, the highest figure among the ‘big five’ countries. The minimum number of matches that are necessary for top division teams to win the trophy is only six in England and France, five or seven in Italy and six in Germany.
While adding more games to the already loaded football calendar, the unique set-up of the Copa del Rey is favourable for the top Spanish teams as they are less likely to be tested over two games. This is evidenced by the list of Copa del Rey finalists from the past six seasons: FC Barcelona have made it to the final on five occasions, whereas Real Madrid CF advanced to that stage three times. Although the list of finalists is longer in other countries, there are exceptions. For example, in Germany FC Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund both played in the DFB Pokal final four times in the past five seasons.
The chart below shows the average domestic league position of winners and losers of cup finals from the past 10 seasons. For example, the last 10 FA Cup winners had an average final placing in the Premier League of 5.3 in the season of their cup triumph. Their opponents’ average finish was 12.9, a figure heavily influenced by smaller teams making a surprise run to the final while struggling in the league. The last three clubs defeated in the FA Cup final, Hull City FC, Aston Villa FC and Crystal Palace FC, finished 16th, 17th and 15th respectively.
The smallest difference between the league position of winners and finalists is in the Coppa Italia, mainly due to the fact that in most cases, both teams in the final are invariably among the best performing clubs in Serie A.
In all competitions the observation is that upsets are rare in the finals as better teams (shown by significantly better league finishes) generally prevailed over the last 10 years. The two stand-out exceptions are Wigan Athletic FC, the FA Cup winners in 2013 and victors against Manchester City FC, and EA Guingamp, who defeated Stade Rennais FC to claim the Coupe de France as a second division club in 2009.
Appeal
The level of popularity also varies strongly across the analysed national cup competitions as demonstrated by the attendance data for the quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final over the past five seasons.
The FA Cup, the DFB Pokal and the Coupe de France all performed at a consistently high level in terms of average utilisation, reaching a rate of over 80% in all five analysed seasons and showing a strong public interest in cup ties. In the case of France, this positive result was aided by a significant number of clubs from outside Ligue 1 advancing to the latter stages of the competition as for these ties a sell-out is almost guaranteed.
In all five seasons the Coppa Italia, where the last eight teams left in the cup are usually among the very best in Italy, finished last in the ranking by utilisation. In the 2015/16 edition of Coppa Italia the average utilisation from the quarter-finals stood at 50%, only slightly lower than the most recent Serie A season (54.5%). In fact, with the exception of France, the difference between league and cup competitions in this regard is relatively small.
Still interesting after all these years
Domestic cup competitions may not have the cachet of the leagues. However, with long histories that add to their credibility – the FA Cup dates back to 1871, Copa del Rey to 1903, the Coupe de France to 1917, Coppa Italia to 1922 and DFB Pokal to 1935 - the latter stages of each competition demonstrate that the genre, despite many distractions, is still valued across Europe’s major football constituencies.
While spectator interest is lower than the appetite for league football, part of the appeal is the possibility of the unexpected, notably smaller clubs outperforming and achieving surprise results. The analysis of recent finalists seems to confirm this is more likely within a structure that allows for “one-off” results rather than programmes of multiple games in which the stronger teams will inevitably flourish.
Further investigation into this and related topics, as well as analysis of industry data, can be undertaken for you by KPMG Sports Advisory Practice. Our subject matter experts can also assist stakeholders in assessing and interpreting the potential impact on their organizations of any particular piece of research, identifying the underlying reasons behind specific trends or developing potential solutions and considering future scenarios.
