In the 2019/20 football season we see 14 newly-promoted clubs in the “big five” leagues. The French Ligue 1 has only two new joiners, Metz and Brest, while in each of the other four leagues three clubs have been promoted to elite status.
Promoted clubs are perceived as usually struggling to secure their place in the top division, but most likely to be relegated instantly to the second tier. However, recent data show otherwise: considering the past 10 seasons, in La Liga and Bundesliga 73% of the freshly promoted clubs were able to stay up top, and while this metric is lowest in Italy’s Serie A, it is still positive, at 57%.
Almost all newcomers have a history comprised of several decades: they include some traditional big clubs, such as Aston Villa or Köln, and also clubs who are entering their country’s elite for the first time, such as Germany’s debutant, Union Berlin. Some can boast several trophies, even on the international front, while others have registered modest successes. Hereby, we introduce all the newly-promoted clubs in the “big five” leagues, assess their strengths and popularity, and their potential for staying up top in the first division after the upcoming season.
Premier League
The new English Premier League season will feature Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa, who replace relegated Cardiff City, Fulham and Huddersfield Town. Norwich City and Aston Villa return to the top flight after three years, while Sheffield United are rejoining the elite after a 12-year absence. In the past 10 years, 11 clubs out of 30 were relegated immediately after their first season in the top tier, while it has only happened twice (in 2011/12 and 2017/18) that all three promoted clubs confirmed their places in the Premier League in the first season. Occasionally, promoted clubs performed beyond expectation: in 2014/15 Leicester City won the title in their 2nd season after being promoted, while newly-promoted Wolverhampton finished 7th in the last season, also getting a pass for the Europa League second qualifying round.
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LaLiga
In Spain, Osasuna were promoted to the first division after a 2-year absence as last season’s second-tier champion. Granada, runners-up in the Segunda Division, also join the elite after two years. The third team to earn promotion to La Liga were play-offs' winner Mallorca, ending a 6-year absence. Together with the German Bundesliga, La Liga is the championship in which the highest proportion of promoted clubs (73%) were able to avoid relegation after their first year in the elite: in the past 10 seasons only eight clubs out of 30 were relegated straight back to the Segunda División. Also, in four seasons (2012, 2014, 2016, 2018), none of the newly-promoted clubs were relegated after one year. The best result registered by a freshly-promoted club is the 6th position, reached by Villareal in 2013/14, which also let them qualify for the UEFA Europa League qualifying rounds in the following season.
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Serie A
In the Italian first division, the three teams that were promoted directly from Serie B were Brescia (after an 8-year absence) and Lecce (after 7 years), while Hellas Verona won the promotion play-off against Cittadella after just one season in the second division. In the Serie A championship in the past 10 years promoted clubs registered the highest chances to be relegated after just one year (43%). Indeed, since 2009/10, in each season at least one newly-promoted club went straight back to the second division after just one season in the top tier. The last time all the three promoted clubs (Juventus, Napoli and Genoa) were able to stay up top in Serie A was in 2007/08. During the past 10 years, the best result from a newly-promoted club was recorded by Parma, which finished 8th in the 2009/10 season.
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Bundesliga
The German Bundesliga started its 57th season last week. Eighteen teams participate, with defending champions Bayern Munich aiming for their 30th national title. The three promoted clubs include last year’s Bundesliga 2 winners Köln and second-placed Paderborn, both automatically promoted, plus Union Berlin, who were promoted after winning the relegation play-offs against VfB Stuttgart. Both Köln and Paderborn are from North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state of Germany, which is represented now by the most clubs (7) in the Bundesliga (also Borussia Dortmund, Fortuna Düsseldorf, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Schalke 04). If we consider the last 10 seasons of the Bundesliga, only six clubs out of 22 were relegated straight back to the Bundesliga 2 after one year. Also, in five seasons, none of the freshly-promoted clubs were relegated after one year. The best result registered by a promoted club was RB Leipzig finishing runners-up in 2016/17.
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Ligue 1
The 82nd season of the French top division sees FC Metz and Stade Brestois 29 joining Ligue 1. They replace the two relegated teams, Stade Malherbe Caen and En Avant de Guingamp. In the past 10 years, similarly to the Premier League, on average, one out of three clubs (34%) went straight back to the Ligue 2 after one season in the main tier, while all the three promoted clubs could secure their place in the top tier in two seasons (2013/14 and 2018/19). During these 10 years, Monaco achieved the best result for a newly-promoted club, when they finished 2nd in the 2013/14 season.
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